Market Ahead of Budget

The Nifty Open in the flat ahead of Budget at  11:00 hrs today.

   This range of 4700 - 4950 on the Nifty will be tested today. If this range does not break today, it will need a miracle for it to break in the March series. Something will have to go drastically right or wrong for the range to break, for we have just come off one of the flattest series in recent memory, both for the series and for yesterday - Its time for the Union Budget 2010.

Disinvestment is an important tool in his box to fund the fiscal deficit (the market is going to be watching like a hawk on what he has to say on this issue [fiscal deficit] as well as inflation). Now, to disinvest after the IPO failure of NHPC and FPO failures of NTPC and REC, he needs a positive market environment or his calculations get thrown awry. Anything even mildly industry negative or too pro populous will be trashed by the market and the FM would not want that. So it is possible the market remains very volatile and sees both ends of the range (4700 - 4950) and settles within it - it is a very likely scenario.